Developer Advisory & ROI Modelling
Data-backed decisions on yield, cost, timing, and risk—so you only pursue projects that pencil
Built for Auckland subdivisions and small multi-unit projects
Worried about viability, margins, or finance risk?
Unsure what yield is realistic under the Unitary Plan (HIRB, setbacks, overlays)?
Not clear how three-waters/service upgrades hit residual land value?
Concerned that interest rates, build costs, or sales prices could break the deal?
Advisory & modelling turns rules and engineering into numbers. We combine planning constraints, civil/three-waters requirements, programme and market assumptions into a transparent pro-forma—so you can see exactly how design choices and consent pathways affect returns.
Every site models differently. Zone/overlays, servicing capacity, access levels, market absorption, and finance terms change both costs and timelines. Across acquisition → design/consent → delivery → exit, each stage shifts cash flow and risk.
My Subdivision gives you clarity. We model scenarios, test sensitivities, and set decision triggers—so you know your go / conditional / no-go line, the max land price you should pay, and the next steps to protect margin.
What We Analyse
Scope
- Planning & yield envelope: zoning, MDRS context, HIRB/setbacks, outlook/amenity, parking.
- Servicing & civil impacts: detention/retention vs soakage, OLFP/flood levels, wastewater capacity, accessway levels—costed allowances.
- Cost baselines: QS inputs or calibrated benchmarks; prelims, contingencies, escalation.
- Market & revenue: comps, $/m², townhouse typology mix, absorption/sell-down pace, lease vs sell options.
- Programme & carrying: realistic timeline, holding costs, escalation, approvals/inspection gates.
- Finance structure: debt/equity mix, interest/fees, drawdowns, covenants.
- Economics: developer margin (on cost / on GDV), Residual Land Value, cash curve, NPV/IRR.
- Sensitivities: sales ±x%, costs ±x%, time ±weeks, rate ±bps, mix changes; break-even analysis.
- Strategies: staging, value-engineering moves, exit options (sell vs hold).
How It Works
(Process & Timing)
Kickoff & Inputs
Site address/LIM, concept or envelope sketches, QS numbers (if any), sales comps, finance terms
Baseline Model
Yield envelope, costs, programme, and financeAuckland-specific.
Scenarios & Sensitivities
Test typology mix, servicing options, and price/cost/time shifts
Recommendations
Go/conditional/no-go, maximum land price, risk mitigations, and next steps.
Deal Support
Refine offers, negotiate conditions, and update model as new data arrives
Who it’s for: developers, builders, and landowners needing clear numbers before committing capital.
Pricing & timing: fixed-fee proposal after a quick scoping call; fast scheduling available.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do you replace a QS or valuer?
No, we model decisions. We can integrate QS estimates and market valuations where provided.
Can you work with my broker/QS/architect?
Yes. We coordinate or plug into your existing team.
What if I don’t have drawings yet?
We can model an envelope using planning controls and typical typologies, then refine as design progresses.
How often do you update the model?
We include one iteration post-review; ongoing updates are available on a retainer or milestone basis.
What return metrics do you target?
We report developer margin on cost/GDV and IRR; targets are set with you based on risk profile and funding
